MLB. The hard part is over.
The Red Sox seemingly sleepwalked at times over the final 36 games of the first half, going 17-19 from May 30 through the All-Star break. That mark, however, is more impressive when considering the competition. The Sox played 23 of those games against teams with records of .500 or better, and three more against the 42-43 Yankees.
In the second half, the Sox will face the soft underbelly of the American League. Of the team’s 75 remaining contests, just 20 are against squads with a mark of .500 or better. That stretch will include 13 contests against the Orioles and 15 games against a last-place Devil Rays squad that the Sox swept last week.
The strength — or lack thereof — of Boston’s remaining opponents suggests their 10-game lead is secure. Still, a number of issues will determine whether the Sox can regain the dominance that characterized the first two months of the season.
Health, of course, will prove paramount, just as it did when injuries sabotaged Boston’s four-game division lead a year ago. On that front, the Sox have some grounds for concern, both in the form of the right shoulder soreness that has sidelined Curt Schilling since June 18 and a right knee injury to slugger David Ortiz.
Ortiz has just 14 homers this year, a pace that would yield 26 over the course of the season. Coupled with the power decline of cleanup hitter Manny Ramirez (11 homers, on pace for 20), the Boston lineup feels different than in previous years.
“I was looking at the (Red Sox) coming in and I could see a noticeable decline in the Red Sox (home run) numbers,” Tampa Bay manager Joe Maddon said last week. “That actually really did stand out for me.”
In averaging just 5.0 runs per game in the first half, the Sox are on pace for their worst offensive output since 2001. An improvement will be necessary for the team to achieve balance.
If that does not happen, the performance of the pitching staff will be ever more important. Schilling’s return to health will define whether the team has a rotation built to dominate in October.
If the 40-year-old joins fellow World Series MVP Josh Beckett and World Baseball Classic MVP Daisuke Matsuzaka, the Sox will enjoy grounds for optimism, both for the rest of this season and into the playoffs.