Green: Seven keys to success in the ALDS

The Red Sox were 6-4 against the Angels this season. The Sox swept the Halos in their April series, split a series with them at Fenway in August and lost two of three in California later that month. That downward trend was making me nervous, so I decided to look at the seven factors that will influence the outcome of the American League Division Series and see how both teams compare:

1. Starting pitching. Josh Beckett has had an unbelievable year, while Schilling has looked good in his most recent outings and always gets up for the big games. But Kelvim Escobar and John Lackey have been outstanding for the Angels (except, in Lackey’s case, at Fenway). Jered Weaver has a better ERA than Daisuke Matsuzaka, but Matsuzaka’s peripherals have been better. Edge: even.

2. Bullpen. Boston’s bullpen ERA is first in the league, and has been a baseball storyline all year long. Anaheim’s eighth-ranked bullpen, as a group, is the definition of mediocre. Edge: Sox.

3. Closer. Francisco Rodriguez has an impressive record in the postseason, has three more saves than Jonathan Papelbon this season, and has a better record. But Papelbon has been better than K-Rod in every other measure including save percentage, batting average against and ERA. Anaheim’s closer is very good, but Boston’s closer is inhuman. And a really good dancer. Edge: Sox.

4. Defense. Boston is second in the league in both defensive efficiency and the more old-fashioned stat of fielding percentage. Anaheim is 12th and 10th, respectively. Big edge: Sox.

5. Baserunning. Boston’s not known for stealing bases (94 this season) while Anaheim loves running (139). But a more important stat is a team’s stealing success rate; this is especially true in the playoffs, when situational stealing can be vital. And Boston finished the season first in the league in stolen base success rate. Anaheim? 10th. Surprising Edge: Sox.

6. Overall offense. The Sox and Angels both have three regulars hitting over .300 and are neck-and-neck in runs scored. But Boston has scored 64 runs against Anaheim this year, holding Anaheim to 42. Slight edge: Sox.

7. Power hitting. The Sox are better in slugging percentage, and Boston had more extra-base hits than Anaheim in every category. Edge: Sox.

It would seem that Boston has the edge here. The sample size of the division series is miniscule by the standards of the 162-game regular season. But as a best-of-five series, there is no room for error in the ALDS. It’s capricious, it’s cruel and it’s built for upsets. Even the team with the edge could find itself edged out.

Sarah Green is a freelance writer, she can be reached at