Green: Seven keys to success in the ALCS

Old empires don’t die. They just fade away. Of course, they fade faster if you give them a hard shove in the ribs, which is just what a young Cleveland club did to the venerable remnants of the Yankees’ dynasty last weekend. However, let us now mitigate our glee with sober contemplation — the Sox now must soon face this fierce young team. How does each side measure up?

• 1. Starting pitching. Boston and Cleveland are neck and neck in this category. C.C. Sabathia is the only pitcher in the AL who’s been better than Josh Beckett this year. Curt Schilling spun another postseason gem on Sunday, but Fausto Carmona has been stellar all season long. Daisuke Matsuzaka’s better than either Jake Westbrook or Paul Byrd, but did not impress on Friday night. Byrd, meanwhile, befuddled the Yankees on Monday. Slight edge: Cleveland.

• 2. Bullpen. Boston’s bullpen excelled as a group during the regular season (experiments with Gagne aside). In the playoffs, however, you might only ever use your best relievers. That’s been Hideki Okajima and Manny Delcarmen for Boston. But as good as they’ve been, Cleveland’s two Rafaels (Betancourt and Perez) have been more consistent. Edge: Cleveland

• 3. Closer. How Joe Borowski racked up 45 saves this season is a mystery: he posted a 5.07 ERA during the regular season. There’s nothing mysterious about Jonathan Papelbon’s fastball. Edge: Boston.

• 4. Defense. Boston’s fielding has been better, but once you start looking position-by-position, neither team has a clear advantage. Edge: Even.

• 5. Baserunning. While I unfairly handed the Sox an edge over the Angels in this category last week, there is no question the Sox are better baserunners this time. Edge: Boston.

• 6. Overall offense. Boston’s offense is slightly better across several key metrics, including team average and runs scored. And patience is golden: the Sox have almost 100 more walks than Cleveland. Boston doesn’t just hit the ball — it makes pitchers work. Edge: Boston.

• 7. Power hitting. Yes, Boston has David Ortiz. Yes, Manny’s regained his home run swing. But, Cleveland hit more homers this year, and has a lineup stacked with hitters who go deep. Edge: Cleveland.

Although Boston held a 5-2 edge over Cleveland in the regular season, the Indians were able to do last weekend what Boston hadn’t done since April: win a series against the Yankees. History tells us when one empire fades, another rises to take its place. Boston would dearly love to be the American League’s next overlord. But first it’ll have to conquer Cleveland.
 

Sarah Green is a freelance writer who can be reached at sgreen@gmail.com