According to Bloomberg analysis:
25 Points Clinton needs to win by in Pennsylvania to catch up to Obama in the popular vote count
20 Points Clinton needs to win by in West Virginia, Kentucky and Puerto Rico
She’d still have to break even in Indiana, North Carolina, South Dakota, Montana and Oregon.
Even with a likely win over Barack Obama in Pennsylvania today, the clock on Hillary Clinton’s shot at winning the Democratic presidential nomination is winding down.
“She does need to change the basic dynamics of the race and she has to do it very quickly,” said Washington-based political consultant Peter Fenn. “She’s against the clock and it’s running out.”
Clinton has to win “Ohio style,” University of Virginia political analyst Larry Sabato said of Clinton’s 10-point win in the Buckeye state March 4. “That would cause people to sit up and take notice. [But] it still wouldn’t nominate her. ... If she wins big in Pennsylvania it’s going to blow some blue smoke and adjust some mirrors so that the media can’t write her out of the race.”
Obama leads Clinton by a margin of 1,645 to 1,504 pledged delegates and superdelegates, according to an unofficial tally by The Associated Press. There are 158 pledged delegates up for grabs in Pennsylvania.
According to Fenn, Clinton’s best shot is to come out of Pennsylvania with a strong showing to try to prove to the superdelegates that she’s the better choice to face Republican John McCain.
“That’s been what moves the superdelegates,” Fenn said, “the sense that, boy, Barack’s a great guy, but he’s too fresh, he’s too inexperienced ... and that she’s the [better] candidate.”
