Green: Some post-deadline playoff odds
Baseball’s non-waiver trading deadline has come and gone, and a considerable amount of dust has now settled. We’ve come a long way from starry-eyed preseason predictions. Taking a fresh look at the American League’s competitive landscape, it’s clear that the Red Sox are no longer kings of the hill.
The Angels, though practically assured of their postseason berth, refused to stand pat. They addressed their biggest need — offense — by adding the bat of Mark Teixeira, a move that increased their chances of success in the playoffs. The AL Central is still up for grabs, but looks a little soft, so I’m expecting the Wild Card to come out of the East. And I’m expecting it to come right down to the wire.
With Manny Ramirez now as far away from Boston as he can be without joining the Seibu Lions, the Red Sox lineup is not quite as dangerous as it once was. The clubhouse, however, is a good deal less dangerous for traveling secretaries. With replacement left fielder Jason Bay under contract for 2009 and arbitration eligible for 2010, the trade makes sense as a long-term solution.
Unfortunately, Boston’s most nettlesome short-term problem remains unsolved: middle relief. The Red Sox have done little other than offer a minor league deal to Joe Borowski. It’s a no-risk move, as far as the money is concerned, but it frightens me nonetheless. Something better may yet come through on waivers, however, and the team’s rookie hurlers could also pitch in (pun intended) in September.
Although Boston’s work is far from done, the other contenders have largely finished their shopping. The Yankees pantsed their trade partners so thoroughly that I, for one, would like to know what they eat for breakfast. They acquired Cooperstown-bound catcher Ivan Rodriguez for reliever Kyle Farnsworth (who you can think of as a burlier, bespectacled John “Way Back” Wasdin). They snagged two of the Pirates’ most coveted players, lefty reliever Damaso Marte and slugging outfielder Xavier Nady, for four minor leaguers, none of whom was a five-star prospect. Why the Bucs decided to deal two valuable guys as if they were a buy-one-get-one special, I can’t tell you. But New York’s now-trademark late-season push can’t be far behind.
The Rays didn’t make any deals, despite needing a better corner outfielder and bullpen help, and they’ve got a difficult schedule the rest of the way. However, their batting average with runners in scoring position is probably unsustainably low — that’s right, they could (and probably should) be even further ahead in the standings.
Boston has a favorable schedule stacked with home games, and if they can patch their bullpen holes, they’ve got as good a shot as any team, and a better shot than most.
But the landscape looks different than it did in April, and the climb from here is only going to get steeper.
Sarah Green is a freelance writer. She can be reached at sgreen@gmail.com.
