Foreman: Playing the political numbers

You can count on me.”

That is the overwhelming message from both Barack Obama and John McCain amid the dog and pony shows that pass for political conventions.  “Count on me for a better economy, cheaper gas, national security, affordable health care, better service at the dry cleaners, foot rubs and maybe even a winning season for your football team.”

But there is a corollary both parties better keep in mind: Count on math.

This is hard for me to admit, because I was once an eager young scholar reduced to blank stares and drools by algebra. When geometry came along, I threatened to hole up in the basement with canned goods. I still wake up screaming, “No, no, no, I will not solve for Y!”

All that said, politics has taught me something that my teachers never could.  Math really matters.  

Presidential elections are all about calculating which states are “safe” for a candidate (meaning they can be safely ignored), which states are leaning a candidate’s way (meaning, like toddlers, you don’t have to hold their hands, but you better keep them in sight) and which states are toss-ups.

Ten states are considered toss-ups on one of our latest CNN electoral maps: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio and Virginia. They account for 123 electoral votes.
 
 Much has been made about how McCain and Obama, heading into their conventions, were neck-and-neck in polls of likely voters. Undeniably, McCain has been moving up. So much so that even staunch Democrats are privately shuddering that the chill winds of autumn will somehow, once again, blow away their late summer advantage over the Republicans.      

But do the math on the electoral votes, and the picture is decidely different. According to our latest calculation, if America voted right now, Obama would get 226 electoral votes, McCain only 189, and they would duke it out for the toss-ups. That means by pumpkin season, McCain has to gain a good bit more ground than Obama to win.

Obama beat Hillary Clinton because he figured out the numbers game. While she was scoring big wins in Democratic strongholds, he was racking up delegates in smaller states. And delegates decide the nomination.

So weeks before she surrendered, the delegate math said she was finished.

Right now, the math still says each man has a good shot at winning. But they better have their calculators humming. The candidate who best figures the tricky equation of toss-up states, days left until the vote, and electoral totals, will get the White House. The other one? You can count him out.  

CNNPolitics.com | Catch Tom Foreman on CNN every Saturday at 6 p.m. on This Week in Politics for a look back at the presidential campaign trail.