US – Friday, July 30

Allen: Super Bowl or bust

I said it last week, but it's even more true this week...

I have no idea what to expect out of the 2008 edition of the New England Patriots.

My previous column in this space was devoted to explaining we really haven't learned anything about the team from the preseason. Now, with the real season set to begin on Sunday, what guess can we make about how well the team is going to do?

A WEEI source yesterday reported that Tom Brady has a cracked bone in his foot, but that the franchise QB is still expected to start the season behind center. Brady's health is of course, the single biggest factor in determining how well this team will do.

On the surface that sounds silly. This team was two minutes way from the first perfect 19-0 season in history, and now, with essentially the same roster returning, we're worried how the health of a single player could ruin the whole season? "Ruin" might be too harsh of a word, as the season would continue, and the Patriots have too much talent on their roster to have the season end up a complete disaster. IF something were to happen to Brady, you've got to imagine that Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels would find a way to utilize the rest of the offensive weapons on the team, perhaps changing up the offense to better suit whoever was put in charge of running it. We might see more of the "dink and dunk" offense with the sideways passes intended to loosen things up for the occasional deep pass. You might see Randy Moss on end-arounds, Kevin Faulk tossing a halfback option or with the abundance of running backs on the roster, simply a smashmouth approach to pounding the ball at the opponent. So, while loosing Brady for any length of time would be a serious setback, the team would likely be able to find a way to be somewhat effective on offense. The real key to the offense could be the offensive line, which has been besieged with injuries during camp. If they can put a group together that can hold off the opponent's defense, the offense should be OK.

The defense is a different worry. The loss of Asante Samuel will be felt, and the Patriots are still trying to fill the position. After seeing Fernando Bryant get dragged into the end zone by a Giants reserve, the coaching staff realized that this wasn't the guy they wanted lining up opposite Ellis Hobbs each Sunday. Deltha O'Neal became available on cutdown day, but who knows if he is the right fit, either? Ty Law is still available, but at this point seems better fitted for the Tank Williams/John Lynch hybrid safety/linebacker role rather than being a shutdown corner on the edge.

The front seven was unimpressive during the preseason, but how much effort were they really expending? Can they just turn it on when the ball is kicked off in anger for the first time on Sunday? Perhaps the most impressive player in the practice games, based solely on expectations coming in, was first round pick Jerod Mayo. He gives the Patriots linebacking corps a sorely needed youth injection, and allows Adalius Thomas to play outside. We didn't see much of Thomas in the preseason, but he should be ready to go on Sunday. His absence gave rookie Shawn Crable and third year man Pierre Woods a chance to get some snaps, and both had encouraging stretches of strong play. Even undrafted free agent Gary Guyton looked pretty good in the middle at times, and it's possible that Scott Pioli and company have restocked the linebacker position right before our eyes.

So what does the season hold? The schedule for the most part is favorable...in fact, it is the weakest schedule in the NFL, which, when you couple that with the aforementioned return of most of an 18-1 team, makes any panic over the season seem a bit silly. The issue though, is the Super Bowl. The Patriots Dynasty status is in danger of being labeled "over" since it has been three full seasons since their last title. Patriots fans want more than a respectable regular season, we want it all. That probably accounts for a lot of the concern over the team.

When I say I don't know what to expect from this team, I guess it should be edited to read "I don't know if I should expect the Patriots to win the Super Bowl" this season. At this point of the season, that's all I'm willing to say...

Bruce Allen is the creator of Boston Sports Media Watch, which has recently been recognized by SI.com as one of the best non-corporate sports web site's on the Internet.