US – Friday, July 30

Violence still a fear as U.S. departs Iraq

 

Political impact

If Iraqi security forces fail to protect the Iraqi people from escalating attacks, Shi’ite Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki is likely to suffer politically. He is staking his hopes for a second term after a parliamentary poll next January on his ability to claim credit for a sharp fall in violence over the past 18 months.

 

Iraq took a major step toward reasserting its sovereignty yesterday when U.S. combat troops handed urban areas over to the country’s relatively untested police and soldiers.

But will the end of one aspect of the “surge” strategy — the ramped-up deployment of U.S. forces in militant strongholds that helped drive al-Qaida and other fighters underground — lead to a collapse in security?

It is highly likely that insurgents will increase their attacks following the departure of U.S. combat troops from city centers, both U.S. and Iraqi officials say.

Some militant groups may want to create the impression that they deserve the credit for driving out the occupation forces.

The fact that the partial withdrawal has been dictated by a bilateral security pact agreed last year between the United States and Iraq is immaterial to them.

Some of the insurgents may also think Iraq and its population will be more vulnerable once the Americans pull back to their bases, and that they have a better chance of reigniting widespread sectarian bloodshed through massive bombings.

There have been indications, however, that insurgent and militant groups have lost the capacity to keep up the momentum.

While the past month saw two of the deadliest bombings in more than a year, the overall number of incidents has plunged, and major attacks are followed by weeks of calm.